"[T]he world's population is migrating from rural areas--accounting for 70% of global population inward 1950--to cities--accounting for 70% of global population past times 2050 based on UN projections. In 2009, the per centum of the planet's population living inward urban areas crossed the 50% threshold in addition to past times 2037 cities inward developing nations volition comprise one-half the world's full population. .... "
Here's a figure to illustrate the point. World population is divided into 4 groups. As lately every bit the 1990s, to a greater extent than than one-half all the basis population lived inward rural areas of developing countries. The projections are that inward 25 years, to a greater extent than than one-half of basis population volition alive inward urban areas of developing countries.
The coming urbanization volition travel almost alone a developing province phenomenon: "Looking at population projections inward the world's fifteen largest urban agglomerations inward 2025, nosotros regime notation that only two--Tokyo in addition to New York City--are inward developed countries. Not a unmarried ane of the world's 25 fastest projected growing major cities is inward a developed country." But fifty-fifty inside developing countries, a number of countries are already seeing decelerating urbanization, because their levels of urbanization are already 70-90% of the population, in addition to then at that topographic point isn't much to a greater extent than room to urbanize. For example, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Colombia, Turkey, Czech Republic, Russian Federation in addition to Republic of Hungary all convey urbanization rates already inward a higher house 66%, in addition to Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Republic of Korea in addition to Kingdom of Saudi Arabia all convey urbanization rates already over 80%.
But only about other grouping of countries, by in addition to large inward Asia in addition to Africa, but too including Poland, are seeing accelerating urbanization: South Africa, Morocco, Nigeria, Poland, China, Philippines, Indonesia, Egypt, Thailand, Pakistan, Vietnam, Bangladesh, India, Kenya. As the written report points out, this listing includes 6 of the 8 largest countries past times population inward the world, in addition to well-nigh 55% of basis population.
The written report argues: "Exploring the human relationship betwixt per capita economical increase in addition to urbanization, nosotros discovery that at that topographic point is a sweet-spot every bit countries urbanize (in the gain of 30%-50% of full population), accompanied past times peak per capita gross domestic product growth." It offers a give-and-take of each these countries of accelerating urbanization.
Here, I'll only brand the overall indicate that urbanization creates economies in addition to diseconomies. On ane side, it concentrates, consumers, workers, in addition to firms inward a agency that allows a time period of information, goods, in addition to services that feeds specialization, economies of scale, technological development, in addition to economical growth. On the other side, it too concentrates problems of pollution, crime, wretched health, poverty, in addition to corruption, in addition to raises needs for physical infrastructure in addition to working institutions. The politics in addition to economic science of the hereafter are probable to travel hammered out, ane resultant at a time, for ameliorate or worse, inward the large cities of developing countries. I discussed only about of these broader issues of urbanization inward "The Coming Urban World" inward a ship service concluding August 29, 2011.
I discovered the Credit Suisse written report via a ship service past times Alex Tabarrok at Marginal Revolution.